The U.S. Census Bureau has announced an additional 30-day public comment period regarding its proposed revisions to the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). This notice, published in the Federal Register, signifies the Bureau's continued efforts to refine its data collection instruments to provide more timely and relevant economic insights. The proposed changes specifically target the economic impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and the measurement of business uncertainty, reflecting a dynamic adaptation to current economic drivers.
Origins and Evolution of the BTOS
The BTOS emerged as a direct response to the urgent need for high-frequency economic data during the Coronavirus pandemic. Building on the successful model of the Small Business Pulse Survey (SBPS), the Census Bureau innovated to create a tool capable of delivering near real-time information. Policymakers, federal agencies, media outlets, and academia lauded the Bureau's rapid development of data products that captured the immediate effects of a historic economic crisis.
Initially, the BTOS focused on single-unit businesses. However, recognizing that multi-unit businesses, despite their smaller numbers, disproportionately contribute to employment, payroll, and revenue, the survey's scope was expanded incrementally. This expansion aimed to ensure that BTOS results are truly representative of the full U.S. economy, covering all nonfarm employer businesses with receipts of $1,000 or more in the United States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The current sample includes approximately 1.2 million businesses organized into six panels, with data collection occurring bi-weekly. Each business in a panel reports once every 12 weeks for a year.
BTOS data is published every two weeks and provides insights at national and state levels, as well as for the 25 most-populous Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). It also breaks down data by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) sector, subsector, employment size class, and sector by employment size class. This detailed granularity allows for a comprehensive understanding of economic conditions, including information on revenue, paid employees, interest rates, and prices. The Small Business Administration has notably utilized BTOS data to assess the impact of regulatory changes.
Enhancing Data Collection: A Focus on AI and Uncertainty
The current Federal Register notice highlights the Census Bureau's proposal to amend its OMB approval for three key areas of the BTOS. These amendments underscore a strategic shift to capture emerging economic phenomena:
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Repeating the AI Supplement: The Bureau seeks approval to repeat its artificial intelligence supplement with minor content adjustments. This indicates an ongoing commitment to understanding how businesses are adopting and utilizing AI technologies. Cognitive testing has informed these changes.
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New Core Question on Business Uncertainty: A new core question about business uncertainty is proposed. This addition signifies the importance of gauging business sentiment and expectations, which can be crucial indicators of future economic trends. This question has also undergone cognitive testing.
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Integrating AI Questions into Core Content: The Bureau plans to move three critical AI-related questions from the supplemental content to the core questionnaire. These include questions on generative AI usage, the impact of AI on the total number of employees, and a new question expanding on the others, focusing on the impact of AI on new employees. This move elevates AI's status as a fundamental aspect of economic activity that requires consistent tracking. To manage respondent burden, these questions will employ skip logic, meaning only businesses reporting AI usage will be prompted to answer them.
This deliberate evolution of the BTOS questionnaire reflects feedback from various stakeholders and the recognized need to paint a comprehensive picture of the impacts of swiftly emerging technologies like AI. The Bureau is also exploring options to publish AI supplement data more frequently than annually, though less often than bi-weekly, to provide more up-to-date insights into this rapidly changing area. Evaluation of respondent burden and methodological impacts of these changes remains ongoing, with the Bureau actively exploring other AI-related topics suitable for inclusion in future BTOS iterations.
Public Comment and Future Adjustments
The Census Bureau adheres to an incremental path for BTOS development, allowing for modifications based on lessons learned and stakeholder feedback. For any substantive revisions to the survey's content or methods, including incremental scope changes, the Bureau commits to submitting requests to OMB, accompanied by a 30-day public comment period announced in the Federal Register. This process ensures transparency and allows for continuous input from the public and federal agencies.
The public is invited to submit written comments and recommendations on the proposed information collection within 30 days of the notice's publication. Comments can be submitted via reginfo.gov, by searching for "Currently under 30-day Review--Open for Public Comments" or by using the OMB Control Number 0607-1022. This final comment period offers a crucial opportunity for interested parties to influence the direction of this vital economic data collection instrument.
